Value Betting: Your Path to Beating the Bookies

Unless you have a crystal ball, value betting is actually the only way to guarantee that you make a long term profit from gambling. But some people still don’t understand the concept, or how to use it effectively to beat the bookies.

Welcome to the first of many guides aimed at helping you consistently outsmart the bookies. This introduction to value betting examines its principles, effectiveness, and how you can leverage it to your benefit. Get ready to delve into what could be the most pivotal guide for those who are serious about turning a profit through betting.

What Is Value Betting?

In essence, value betting is all about finding scenarios where the bookmaker's odds exceed the true likelihood of an outcome. Whether or not you think a team will win doesn’t change the fact that good value comes from spotting when odds are inaccurately high.

Before diving into value bets, it's essential to understand how bookmakers set their odds.

How bookmakers make money

Do bookies profit? Absolutely. It's not just about gamblers making poor choices; it’s about the bookies maintaining an edge over every betting market. This edge comes from offering odds that are generally worse than the true likelihood of an event.

Let’s take a look at an example.

The simplest and most popular example is to consider betting on the toss of a coin. This isn’t so silly as it sounds, you can actually do exactly that in cricket.

A fair coin has an equal shot at landing heads or tails, represented by even odds, or 2.0 in decimal. That’s the basis of gambling odds.

This equal probability suggests that you should expect evens on either side when betting. Yet, bookies would offer something like 1.95 instead of 2.0. This discrepancy is their profit margin, ensuring they benefit no matter the bet's outcome.

Let's consider another example with a football match.

Many bettors simply wager on the outcome they find most likely. But how do the offered odds stack up in terms of value?

To gauge the likelihood of any event, a mathematical formula can be your best tool.

Probability – (1 / odds) x 100

Now, let's assess the probabilities for three outcomes: PSG winning, a draw, or Real Madrid winning.

• PSG: (1 / 2.2) x 100 = 45.45%
• Draw: (1 / 3.7) x 100 = 27.03%
• Real Madrid: (1 / 3) x 100 = 33.33%

With fair odds, the probability of all outcomes should equal 100%. For instance, a coin’s heads or tails both have a 50% chance, adding up to 100%. Yet, when adding the football match odds, we see them surpass 100%.

45.45 + 27.03 + 33.33 = 105.81%

Why do these probabilities exceed 100%?

This over 100% scenario is how bookies ensure profitability, known as the ‘over-round’.

In our example, the over-round is 5.81%. Even if every potential outcome is bet on equally, the bookie secures a 5.81% gain. Every market they operate has this over-round to guarantee profit.

We've identified the bookie’s advantage via the over-round, which raises the question: is long-term profit achievable? Fortunately, yes. Sometimes, bookies misjudge odds, presenting value bets .

Revisiting coin tosses, you’d generally expect 2.0 odds per outcome without considering the bookmaker's margin. If they offer 2.1 for heads, there’s value there worth seizing.

Value betting, at its core, is about leveraging situations where the odds tilt in your favor for sustainable profit.

Variance in Value Betting

We’ve found that when a bookie's odds exceed a true event's odds, it presents a value bet, but that doesn’t ensure victory every time. What's vital is the long game, where even non-winning bets can be good bets if consistently exploited over time.

It's crucial to grasp that value betting involves both downturns and updrifts—sometimes long losing streaks—yet having the edge means a positive long-term outcome.

Consider a casino: it always has an edge in games like roulette at around 2.5% and blackjack at 0.05%. Casinos might lose in the short run due to lucky streaks, hence incentives like free stays and meals for high-rollers: more play reduces variance, letting the house edge prevail.

In value betting, you’re the one with the edge over the bookie. Yet, expect swings; your goal is to focus on eventual profit gains.

Tracking your bets

The unpredictability of streaks demands bet tracking. Though losing periods might seem discouraging, long-term profit charts provide reassurance.

How To Find Value Bets

Ok, so you hopefully now know what value bets are and that it’s possible to make a profit from them in the long-term. So, how do you find value bets?

To spot valuable bets, you need an understanding of true odds, which can be challenging. Betting exchanges are useful starting points. Betting exchanges Platforms like Betfair Exchange generally mirror closer probabilities than bookies do. They might list 11/1 while a bookie sticks with 9/1. Assuming Betfair's odds are accurate, higher available odds indicate potential value. on England winning the World Cup Odds matcher tools assist in identifying these opportunities, as depicted in the following illustration.

Highlighted in the image are two bettor-friendly bets where bookie's odds surpass Betfair Exchange’s. Green represents bookmaker odds, blue for the exchange. These aren't 'arbs' due to Betfair commission, yet they still constitute value bets.

Odds matchers aren't intended for value bet discovery since exchange odds reflect lay rather than back positions. Despite lay odds offering more value, alternative strategies, such as value betting services, are advisable.

One such service not only offers arbitrage software but tips on value bets where they find bookies overestimating prices. They list ample bets, their users showing promising outcomes, as highlighted in the graph that follows.

Rebel Betting Value betting operates on solid mathematical principles: any offered odds better than true odds are sound and valuable. However, it's not without its challenges.

Is Value Betting a good idea?

The primary hurdle in value betting is its inherent variance. Expect to encounter downturns, demanding mental and financial resilience. It's simple to abandon ship during challenging times, steering toward potential loss.

Additionally, gauging a true value bet remains somewhat uncertain. Despite insights from exchanges or services like Rebel Betting, it begs the question: what truly are the odds? Unconsidered factors might influence actual probabilities.

This gambling technique suits seasoned bettors given its complexity. With a solid foundation in betting logic, it can be a lucrative endeavor.

Our goal with this piece was to demystify value betting's essence and the searching of value bets. Dive into our additional material for deeper insights.

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