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With the dust settling on the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket, racing enthusiasts in the UK are now shifting their gaze to the upcoming Epsom Derby, the second classic of the season, set to unfold in Surrey early next month.
Being at the helm of one of the globe's leading bloodstock operations, all eyes are naturally on Aidan O'Brien as the Epsom Derby approaches. To truly understand his impact on the race, it’s crucial to examine his recent track record in this prestigious event.
Since making a striking entry into the Epsom race, Aidan O’Brien has led eight champions to victory, with the illustrious stallion Galileo breaking the ground back in 2001, closely followed by High Chaparral just a year later. Epsom Derby Back in the day, Galileo was the undisputed star among O’Brien’s contenders, entering the race solo after clinching three consecutive wins. Not to be underestimated, High Chaparral showed promise too, being narrowly defeated at unfavorable odds in a big field debut at Punchestown before his triumph at Epsom.
Curiously, High Chaparral didn’t start as the favorite back then. That honor went to his stablemate Hawk Wing, most likely due to the latter's near-miss at the 2000 Guineas in Newmarket, a race some might argue he lost due to misfortune.
Following this spell, there was a notable gap of ten years before O’Brien saddled another Epsom Derby winner, making his more recent performances worth a detailed look.
Though O'Brien didn't secure a victory in the 2010 Epsom Derby, his impressive feat of having three runners among the top five finishers, including a surprising second place from At First Sight at 100/1 odds, is noteworthy. The favorite Jan Vermeer disappointed, while Midas Touch later turned the tables in the Irish Derby later that month.
The subsequent year, 2011, saw O’Brien fielding a sizable team with Treasure Beach finishing second at 25/1, alongside runners Memphis Tennessee, Recital, and Seville, who also entered the contest.
Camelot emerged as a promising contender in 2012, stepping into the Epsom Derby spotlight on the heels of his Newmarket 2000 Guineas triumph, and he delivered by winning comfortably. Only two of O’Brien’s horses participated that year, testament to Camelot's strength.
In more recent derby races, O’Brien has consistently fielded multiple horses, five or more on average over the past five years, with the only exception being when Bolshoi Ballet ran solo recently. This strategy has seen him claim three wins and numerous placings amidst the fierce competition in the Epsom races.
For those analyzing trends, note that between 2010 and today, two of O'Brien’s horses starting at below 5/1 odds won: Australia (11/8) in 2014 and Camelot (8/13) in 2012. However, some runners like Saxon Warrior, Bolshoi Ballet, and Jan Vermeer were not as fortunate, despite similar odds.
The unexpected victory of Serpentine at 25/1 in 2020 may have seemed like an anomaly, but O’Brien’s outsiders have a history of outperforming expectations, as shown by Wings Of Eagles’ 40/1 win and several other strong finishes at high odds.
Both High Chaparral and Galileo found their form after winning the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial at Leopardstown. However, even with success in the Leopardstown contest in recent years, not all winners have shone in the Epsom races, posing questions for this year's favourite.
In recent years, O’Brien's Derby winners often prepare on UK tracks, with Ruler Of The World clinching victory and Wings Of Eagles coming close. Curiously, Serpentine deviated from this trend, making a swift impact after winning a Curragh maiden just weeks before his Epsom triumph in 2020.
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