These are our predictions for the Ryanair Chase scheduled at 15:20 on Thursday, March 13 at the 2024 Cheltenham Festival.
Recently, the trainers' championship has captured headlines, largely due to Willie Mullins' remarkable streak in major races, clinching the National Hunt title. Much like the flat racing counterpart, this title is awarded based on prize money accumulation.
Examining the results reveals that despite Mullins trailing behind challengers like Paul Nicholls, Dan Skelton, Nicky Henderson, and Olly Murphy in total number of wins, his achievements at Cheltenham, Ayr, and Sandown have propelled him to the forefront. Aintree While I don't dispute Mullins' title as Champion National Hunt Trainer, granted under pre-established rules, I wonder if there's a more fitting method to determine it.
Mullins' strategy, which includes a Grand National victory and several other significant triumphs, allowed him to climb from behind in the UK-based race that kicked off last May.
The focus on major victories and the weight of prize money towards spring festivals is why Gordon Elliott—a trainer with merely twenty UK wins this season—ranked fifth, following Mullins, Skelton, Nicholls, & Henderson. Cheltenham In contrast, both the Jump Jockeys and Flat Jockeys Championships count victories, a criterion that would position Paul Nicholls as Champion with 131 wins out of 750+ entries.
Though I favor determining champions by total wins, critics argue this undervalues elite Graded races compared to numerous lower-grade handicap hurdles or chases.
An improved approach might set a benchmark for minimum wins or entries to qualify a trainer as Champion.
If set at 149 entries, Mullins would narrowly miss the criteria, while a 200-entry minimum might push him and Gordon Elliott towards focusing on minor races.
Such changes could ripple through the racing world, possibly impacting northern-based trainers already battling for winners.
The Flat season got off to a strong start last month, yet the Flat Jockeys Championship officially tells its story from 2000 Guineas Day, concluding mid-October.
Victories in May don't count for jockeys, nor do any attained on the 20th.
I question this system, considering Flat racing in 2024 spans the entire year with races nearly daily. racing at Doncaster Everyone knows top jockeys in the UK, yet some venture abroad for lucrative winter contracts. It's harsh for those remaining to compete with newcomers starting fresh in the less glamorous UK winter season.
Thus all winners from 1stJanuary to 3rdI see merit in distinct turf and all-weather trainer titles, but blending all races between May and October is flawed chronologically.thOctober or later will also not count.
Though we don't expect the Trainer Championship standings to hold, Andrew Balding currently maintains a roughly £65,000 lead over Mick Appleby.
There's a £100,000 gap to third-place Charlie Johnston, but this weekend’s classics may see Aidan O’Brien make strides, armed with strong prospects in the 1000 and 2000 Guineas.
A few years back, Richard Hughes proposed counting only significant prize races for jockeys, yet discarding races solely on money feels inequitable compared to using elements like field size, race type, etc.
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