Predicting When Liz Truss Will Step Down as Prime Minister in 2023

Update 18th October

Politics is a rapidly shifting landscape, and within just a week, the situation around Liz Truss's tenure as Prime Minister has seen significant developments. Recent events have included the dismissal of former Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng and the appointment of Jeremy Hunt, who has quickly moved to reverse nearly all the tax cuts that were part of the September 23 mini-budget. These actions have essentially stripped away any remaining trust in the Prime Minister, according to leading political commentators. Below, the current odds from William Hill (as of October 18) suggest possible scenarios for when Liz Truss might leave Downing Street. Note that the market is volatile with odds subject to change.

Liz Truss Exit Date Betting Odds
	2022	8/15
	2023	7/4
	2024	12/1
	2025 Or Later	25/1

Initial publication on October 12

Being a Prime Minister is inherently challenging, with an array of duties to juggle, crises to mitigate, and political games to navigate, all while ensuring voter support. Yet, after just a month in the role, Liz Truss is grappling with stabilizing her authority largely due to her own decisions.

The introduction of the mini-budget, coming the day prior to the Commons' two-week hiatus for party conferences, has unleashed substantial turmoil. The pound has tumbled, mortgage options have vanished, interest rates are climbing, and the Bank of England has had to intervene to stabilize the economy. The controversial proposal to abolish the 45% tax rate has already been retracted, and Chancellor Kwarteng is under pressure to clarify how he’ll finance his sweeping tax reductions.

The political ramifications of the mini-budget have been immense. Labour has surged ahead by 30 points in polls, offering Sir Keir Starmer an optimistic outlook for potential electoral triumph. Truss’s approval ratings have plummeted from an already unimpressive -9 to a disastrous -47 post-Tory conference. Convincing the parliamentary party of her suitability to lead the Conservatives into the next General Election, due by January 2025, is now a daunting task. With just over two years until then (unless an early election is called, which seems unlikely), the question remains: will Liz last the term?

UK Bookmakers Bookmakers are offering odds on this uncertainty, and prospects appear bleak for our PM at present. Ladbrokes, for instance, presents the following odds on when Liz Truss might step down:

• 7/1 odds that Liz Truss will resign within the next three months, meaning before the end of 2022.
• 11/10 odds for Liz Truss to leave in 2023
• 9/4 odds that Liz Truss will leave the role of Prime Minister in 2024.

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Nonetheless, Liz Truss shows no intent to resign voluntarily, and ousting a Prime Minister is far from straightforward.

A possible path involves a no-confidence vote in the Commons, usually initiated by an opposition party. If the government loses, a fortnight would follow for a re-vote while opposition parties could attempt to form a government. Without resolution, an election becomes inevitable. However, given the Conservative landslide in 2019 under ex-PM Boris Johnson, a no-confidence defeat seems remote.

A more conceivable outcome is pressure from Conservative MPs forcing Truss’s departure. In the recent leadership contest, it was apparent she lacked majority backing, as shown by 137 MPs voting for Rishi Sunak versus 113 for her. Post-budget, prominent MPs like Michael Gove and Penny Mordaunt have voiced their policy concerns. Should unrest grow, MPs might submit no-confidence letters to Sir Graham Brady, head of the 1922 Committee. With enough submissions (approximately 54), a leadership vote could be initiated, potentially resulting in her replacement and prompting calls for an early election—a gamble the Tories may take despite risks.