Who's Facing the Drop? Analyzing 2024 Premier League Relegation Scenarios

The battle to evade Premier League relegation often remains undetermined until the closure of the season. Just last year, it went down to the wire with Everton narrowly securing a 1-0 victory against Bournemouth, ensuring their survival and pushing previous titleholders Leicester City into the drop zone.

In this 2023/24 Premier League chapter, the air is thick with uncertainty regarding which squads will maintain their status, as external factors could potentially reshape the dynamics - think looming points penalties for some clubs.

Let's delve into the current relegation landscape of the upper echelon, and assess some UKClubSport   for how things may play out.

Heading Down

The outlook is bleak for both Sheffield United and Burnley as they each languish with a mere 13 points after 26 matches in elite competition. With approximately 30 points being typically required to ensure safety, they face an uphill climb. Despite any potential turnarounds, their substantial negative goal differences—Sheffield at -44 and Burnley at -33—cast long shadows over their survival hopes.

Coming Up

Before dissecting the plight of those in peril, let's consider the parties angling for a Premier League ascent. Leicester City have dominated the Championship and are poised for a swift reentry into top-tier football.

Leeds have shown formidable resurgence, pulling off a series of victories that places them firmly in the hunt for automatic promotion, alongside Ipswich. The Tractor Boys started strong, hit a rough patch in winter, but have now regained their stride.

Can the Hatters Hang On?

With Burnley and Sheffield United teetering towards demotion, who might join them? Luton, being one of the freshly inducted sides, are favored contenders for the third relegation spot. Their proactive approach, rather than a defensive mindset, has been commendable.

It’s been refreshing to see such spirit, yet victories are scarce for Luton, who found themselves four points adrift from safety with an extra game to their name after 26 matches. Crucial home ties await them against fellow strugglers Nottingham Forest, Brentford, and Everton.

Troubled Trio

Nottingham Forest’s ordeal deepened this season with just three wins since early November. While they’ve procured a few commendable home outcomes, their 2024 began on a grim note, suggesting a downward trajectory.

To many's amazement, Brentford have been ensnared by the relegation vortex after dropping 10 out of 12 fixtures between December and February. Despite Ivan Toney's comeback, their nosedive hasn't been halted.

Earlier this season, a penalty of 10 points was levied against Everton due to financial breaches, thrusting them into another relegation tussle. Fortunately, an appeal in February restored four points, yet the Toffees’ ordeal is far from over.

A nine-game drought from November through February underscores Everton's persistent issues. Discounting Burnley and Sheffield, they’re the league's least prolific scorers. Nonetheless, they have upcoming fixtures against four of the five teams beneath them at their home ground, Goodison Park.

Forest and Everton in the Dock

Everton potentially faces additional financial penalties and Nottingham Forest could share the same fate. Absent a timely resolution by April, the season's final six games could see point deductions radically altering the relegation equation, possibly offering Luton and Brentford a significant reprieve.

Who Might It Be?

Excluding the variable of point deductions, let's identify probable relegation recipients. Luton wrestles with the most challenges, despite showing the most tenacity among at-risk teams.

If Luton dodges demotion, Nottingham Forest teeters as the next in line. Everton has had decent showings against bottom-half clubs while Brentford schedules winnable home fixtures against underperforming sides.

Contrastingly, Nottingham Forest has already hosted all other bottom-six contenders, leaving them reliant on tense away games. Their home stretch includes daunting clashes with Chelsea, Man City, and Liverpool, placing their Premier League tenure at risk.